Posted on June 18th, 2012 nrapp 4 comments
Our average age at death soars in the last third of life. In other words: The longer you live, the longer you’re likely to live. “As you work your way through the age range, you’re essentially weeding out the frail from the population,” explains Bob Anderson, chief of mortality statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “When you get to the older ages, you’re left with the more robust in the population. And that continues as you move up.” The first deadly hurdles occur in year one, when around 30,000 babies succumb to the likes of congenital defects and prematurity. In the teens and twenties, accidents and violence peak. For men, these are especially risky years—ages 20 to 24 are known as the “accident hump” (and may be a reason women live longer).
—Text by J. Abbasi, in the latest issue of Fortune Magazine
Your conclusion is flawed, unfortunately. While the lines do go up sharply, the actual number of years left beyond your current age is DROPPING. What’s happening here is that your X axis is reaching the Y axis range and causing an anomaly in your graph. Set the range for both the X and Y to be the same 0-100 years and you’ll see the actual trend will actually go up sharply and then start to level off.
For example, a male at age 40 has a life expectancy of 78 years, 38 years beyond the age of 40.
By 78, the expectancy has moved up to 87 years, 9 years beyond.
By 87 it’s only 92, 5 years beyond.
and so on.
So the longer you live does mean you have a chance of living longer, but the number of years beyond your current age drops as you get older, it doesn’t go up the longer you live.
Sorry, I should say THE conclusion is flawed since it’s just being reposted here.
The longer you live, the older you will die (on average).
Hmmm. I note that the “accident hump” overlaps median first marrige. coincidence?